Weekly Previews – Round 9
Fri May 09, 7:40pm Cowboys v Broncos (+1.5) 1300SMILES Stadium
The bye has come at exactly the wrong time for the Cowboys, who had finally managed to ‘click’. The Cowboys were impressive putting the Eels to the sword a fortnight ago. For NRLCEO coaches, the Cowboys have looked to favour their right edge of Tate and Rona in recent times. Rona looks to have cemented his spot in first grade, and would be a great pickup for coaches if he is still a free agent in your league. Listed as a Centre, he will be a dual position player after this week and has 3 tries from two games.
The Corey Parker to prop experiment seems to have ended in Brisbane. He shifts to his natural position in the back-row, with Martin Kennedy replacing him at prop. Anthony Griffin has decided screwing NRLCEO coaches such as myself by limiting Ben Hannant’s minutes was not enough and dropped him altogether. I’d like to make a wisecrack about him, but the Broncos are exceeding any expectations I had for them and still have led every game they’ve played in the last 20 minutes.
This match could definitely go either way. I’ll stick with the Broncos as at least my tip should look alive for 60 minutes.
Tip: Broncos
Fri May 09, 7:40pm Roosters v Tigers (+10.5) Allianz Stadium
Injury looks to rob Remi Casty of his NRL debut, but the Roosters otherwise look to have their full complement available for this clash. James Maloney is expected to play with injections for his shoulder complaint and Michael Jennings is a confirmed starter despite an ankle issue. The Roosters have been disappointing in 2014, with a 4-4 record but their great differential has them sitting 5th. A win this week will see the Chooks move up into the top four for the first time this season.
This match has been robbed of potential blockbuster status through the sheer weight of injuries impacting the Tigers. They are missing 10 regular first graders with the expected late withdrawal of Liam Fulton. The Tigers have been this seasons overachievers and there is a chance Farah could be a late inclusion; but I just think too many chips are stacked against them this week.
Tip: Roosters
Sat May 10, 3:00pm Warriors v Raiders (+6.5) Eden Park
These sides are both awful defensively, but look to be headed in different directions. The Warriors have improved on that end, having conceded 51 points in their last three games whilst the Raiders managed to concede 54 points (including 42 in a half!) just last week.
The representative round came at the perfect time for the Raiders, who bounced back from a stirring win against Melbourne to look like a true Ricky Stuart coached side against Manly last week. After a strong start to the year, Anthony Milford has gone missing with only 5 points in the last 4 weeks. Perhaps just in time to save the Raiders pissing up $1million a year by resigning him?
For the casual footy fan, this is an inconsequential matchup of crappy teams; but for NRLCEO coaches the inconsistent teams with awful defences could mean big points. I hate tipping the Warriors, but I couldn’t tip the Raiders after watching them last week.
Tip: Warriors
Sat May 10, 5:30pm Titans (+6.5) v Rabbitohs Cbus Super Stadium
Somehow, the Titans keep winning. They have got to be in the running for the least impressive 6-2 team in history. They come up against a Souths squad that has been best summed up by Ryan James: “Souths just bully their way through the middle and let Greg Inglis do the pretty stuff out the back”. Neither backline has impressed and this should be a match dominated by the forwards.
For the Titans, both Sezer and Kelly have been named but need to pass fitness tests to play: NRLCEO coaches will need to keep their eye on late-mail and Twitter come Friday. Zillman returns to first grade but has been displaced from fullback by the impressive David Mead. I’d be concerned by him defensively, but the Souths outside backs would struggle to trouble Roy Bell on present form.
The Titans have been great at drawing sides into a war of attrition in 2014 and consistently come out on top. Given their dour play, I’m not sure how much potential injury to their frontline halves will affect the result. I think Souths should be too good for the Titans this week, but given their impotent attack this match could end up close.
Tip: Souths
Sat May 10, 7:30pm Storm v Sea Eagles (+6.5) AAMI Park
The biggest rivalry in modern day rugby league should be kept interesting with the injuries to Manly giving Melbourne a chance for a rare win in 2014. Melbourne stormed home from 20-0 down to beat Manly at Brookvale in Round 1 and should be confident playing at home against an injury hit Sea Eagles squad.
Manly managed to overcome a few injuries to belt the Raiders last week, but look to have suffered the big double blow of losing Lyon and Cherry-Evans. DCE has been named, but quotes from Buhrer have suggested he may be moved to the halves to cover the for the 7 minute rep stars absence.
The Storm usually favour their right edge of Chambers & Waqa in attack, however I’d look to them going down their left more this week. The absence of Lyon has meant Hiku shifts out of position to centre and David Williams returns to first grade. Jamie Lyon wasn’t good enough to cover for Williams’ awful defence, so a makeshift centre inside him should spell points for Tonumaipea. The Storm have been unimpressive this year but this game has been gift-wrapped for them with the key injuries to Manly.
Tip: Storm
Sun May 11, 2:00pm Knights v Panthers (+4.5) Hunter Stadium
This is a matchup of a couple of the worst attacking sides in the competition. The Panthers have managed to score more than three tries just once this season, and that was against the Knights in round one. In the last four weeks, the Knights are averaging less than 12 points a game. Yeah this looks like being exciting…
Jamal Idris has looked much improved in recent weeks and some pundits have him pushing for a Blues jersey. From an NRLCEO coach’s perspective, these pundits are idiots. Idris hasn’t scored a try all year or scored an NRLCEO point since Round 2. Saying that, Aku Uate returns for the Knights to defend Idris’ side of the field; so I give him every chance of getting the elusive 2nd NRLCEO point this week. Elijah Taylor is also a key out for the Panthers. The error-prone Tyrone Peachey replaces him in the starting line-up, but I’ll look to Kevin Kingston to play greater minutes in the back row to replace the defensive efforts of Taylor.
The Knights welcome back Uate, but are missing a few forwards to injury and suspension. This is a desperation game for the Knights, who sit 15th and are fast losing any chance of competing at the pointy end of 2014. I expect an improved performance at home and will tip them to beat an inconsistent Panthers outfit.
Tip: Knights
Sun May 11, 3:00pm Dragons (+6.5) v Bulldogs ANZ Stadium
The attack of these sides is separated by only 2 points so far, but the defensive end of things tells the story behind their ladder positions. The Dragons are conceding 22.75ppg whilst the Bulldogs are conceding a miserly 13.25ppg.
The Dragons made me look like a knob for daring to tip them last round. They were comprehensively beaten by the Roosters last week and come up against the ladder-leading Bulldogs this week. Ever since Josh “one time I passed, I swear!” Dugan returned, the Dragons have looked lost in attack. In four games without Dugan, Widdop has scored 22 NRLCEO points, and the four games with him only four. Dugan is a ball-stopper and until the coach steps up and puts him in his place, the Dragons will continue to live and die by his solo performances.
The Bulldogs have won their last 4 games by a combined 7 points. In that time everyone has had the chance to jump off the ‘Reynolds for Origin’ bandwagon as their attack has faltered, failing to score more than 3 tries in any of those matches. After some gruelling contests, the week off will have been as valuable for the Bulldogs as any side in the competition. They are deserved favourites this week on a five match winning streak, but have many areas still available to improve.
Tip: Bulldogs
Mon May 12, 7:00pm Eels v Sharks (+2.5) Pirtek Stadium
The Sharks’ attack has averaged less than 14ppg this year, but they’ll get an opportunity to improve that mark against an Eels side conceding over 25ppg. Then again, when you start Ayshford, Leutele, Ryan and Feki as outside backs, perhaps it should be considered an achievement the Sharks are averaging more than 2 tries per game. The Sharks also lose Todd Carney to injury and have been forced to name the returning Luke Lewis in the halves: this could get ugly.
The Eels are in a logjam of seven teams with a 4-4 record, but sit 11th due to an awful for and against. Playing against the last-placed team, this could be the match that helps correct that. Radradra has the fortune of aiming up against Ryan and Ayshford who are surely in the running for the worst centre/wing pairing in the comp. If only he had a centre with a pulse inside him instead of the decade past-it Tonga, I’d have already pencilled him in for a treble. The Eels have been increasingly dependent on their right edge with the improved form of Hayne, so I’d also be keen on naming Hoppa/Sio if you have them in your squad.
Tip: Eels
Ryan
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