Weekly Previews Round 8
Buoyed by a stunning 5/8 tipping performance last week, i’m picking upsets in four contests this week. There are a few interesting matchups for NRLCEO coaches to consider, with a match between the two worst defensive sides and another between the two worst attacking teams.
Fri Apr 25, 4:00pm Dragons (+6.5) v Roosters Allianz Stadium
Both the Roosters and Dragons managed to arrest form slumps with victories last weekend. Don’t look into their wins too much though; the sides they beat are currently sitting 15th and 16th on the ladder.
The Roosters have struggled in attack this year. Taking out the outlier performance against the Eels in round 2, the Chooks are averaging less than 14ppg. NRLCEO coaches who drafted the likes of Maloney, Pearce and Jennings based on their excellent 2013 form will be less than happy with their returns so far.
The Dragons conversely are the second best attacking team in the competition. They average nearly 23ppg and I’d be happy having either winger in my starting lineup each week. After an amazing start, Gareth Widdop has crashed back to earth failing to score a single NRLCEO point in his last four matches after getting 22 through the first three.
This match will be closer than the bookies currently have it. I expect a huge performance from the Roosters pack, but with the way their backline has functioned so far this year I am happy trying to look like a champ tipping the roughie.
Tip: Dragons
Fri Apr 25, 6:00pm Storm v Warriors (+8.5) AAMI Park
This is a matchup of the NRL’s two worst defenses. Each side enters the contest conceding an average of 25 points per game. You can bet Craig Bellamy and whoever won the chook raffle to coach the Warriors this week won’t be happy.
The difference between these two sides will likely be attack. The Warriors have only scored more than 20 points once this year, and conceding as many as they do you will struggle to win matches. Saying that, the Warriors have as good a record in Melbourne as any side, winning 2 of their last 4.
I don’t think either side is playing well enough to feel confident in the result this week. Given their respectively poor defenses, you’d have to be more confident in your tipping than I am not to name your backs from either squad. I expect the Warriors to step up this week, and with Hurrell expected to be a late inclusion I think they might have enough firepower to cause an upset.
Tip: Warriors
Fri Apr 25, 8:00pm Broncos (+2.5) v Rabbitohs Suncorp Stadium
The Bunnies lost a close encounter to the Bulldogs on Good Friday, whilst the Broncos spanked the Knights in Newcastle. The form lines are hard to equate and I’m finding this matchup is the harder to pick than a broken nose.
The Rabbitohs have two key ‘ins’ this week, with both Ben Teo and George Burgess returning after a week on the sidelines. Don’t underestimate how key these inclusions are- the Souths backline has done nothing and if they win it will be the forward pack that gets this job done.
The Broncos managed to thump a Newcastle side I simply don’t rate, but the most exciting part of the match was the return to form of Ben Barba. Barba scored his first try for the Broncos and if he can recapture even glimpses of his 2012 form NRLCEO owners will be cheering. Sam Thaiday remains on the sidelines injured, which should see Martin Kennedy go close to a workhorse in an expanded role. He is worth a look as he remains a free agent in many leagues.
This match should be a great one for NRLCEO coaches looking to play their forwards. Both sides rely on their big men a lot and I expect to see a couple of tries to forwards to go along with a handful of workhorses. In terms of result, I think this is a coin flip. I’ll take the home side in a close one.
Tip: Broncos
Sat Apr 26, 3:00pm Sharks v Panthers (+1.5) Remondis Stadium
Whilst the Storm and Warriors is the matchup of the two worst defenses in the NRL, this matchup features the NRL’s two worst attacks. The primary difference between these two squads has been defense, with the Panthers conceding nearly 7ppg fewer in 2014.
The Sharks welcomed back their leader Paul Gallen last week. Many NRLCEO coaches will be happy to have their early draft pick back and available, but Gallen’s value doesn’t stop there. Players like Carney in the halves and Gordon kicking gain value as well. The Sharks won’t be sitting in last in a few weeks time with their full squad back on the park. Hell, they are favourites this week against a top-8 side despite being 1 from 7!
The Panthers have continued to screw me. In one comp I started the year with Soward, Wallace, Whare, Idris and Simmons and the Panthers still sit second to last in attack. I am over the Panthers and am now starting to write them off. This is purely coach-rage: the squad has an admirable 4-3 record in 2014.
I was really impressed with how the Sharks looked against the Roosters last week but not greatly impressed with the Panthers. I think they look to shoot up the ladder to almost 15th with a win this week.
Tip: Sharks
Sat Apr 26, 5:30pm Cowboys v Eels (+5.5) 1300SMILES Stadium
The Cowboys can whinge about the awful Foran/Buhrer call all they want, but they led Manly with minutes remaining and conceded yet another try to lose. This side seems to lack the on-field leadership to overcome poor refereeing decisions and let’s be honest; that’s a skill a captain needs in 2014.
The Eels have exceeded expectations in 2014, but most expected them to do it easy against an injured Tigers team last week. Instead they lost, and now need to win this week to retain their position in the top 8.
The Cowboys may have only won 2 of 7, but still have a positive for and against. Four out of five losses have been by five points or less. I can make cases for why they’ll win, but every time I try I remember the devastating form of Jarryd Hayne last week. Semi Radradra will have a field day against Matt Wright is he sees enough quality ball.
Tip: Eels
Sat Apr 26, 7:30pm Bulldogs v Knights (+6.5) ANZ Stadium
The Bulldogs have won three matches straight by a single point. I think they will struggle to maintain that record this week against a Knights side that could finish the weekend in 16th position.
The Bulldogs have the league’s best defense, conceding only 13 points per game. The Knights have the 14th ranked attack. This one should be too easy for a Bulldogs squad keen for vengeance after losing three matches to the Knights last year. NRLCEO coaches should name their backs.
Tip: Bulldogs by a margin
Sun Apr 27, 2:00pm Sea Eagles v Raiders (+7.5) Brookvale Oval
The Sea Eagles swap key halves this week, with Foran out and Cherry-Evans in. It doesn’t matter, with NRL referees seemingly looking to make up for Shayne Hayne screwing Manly out of a premiership by gifting the Sea Eagles undeserved wins in 2014.
Canberra put in a stirring performance at home last week to come from behind and take the points against the Storm. It was a great win, but I do wonder when a Ricky Stuart coached side last won two in a row? I think the Sea Eagles will look to put a tumultuous week behind them win a slick performance and expect the Raiders to come out flat after the emotional win last round. I’ll be naming all my Manly backs and encourage you to do the same.
Tip: Manly in a canter
Sun Apr 27, 3:00pm Tigers v Titans (+2.5) Leichhardt Oval
Like many I expected the Tigers to get toweled up last week against the Eels, but they showed something I didn’t expect them to have: depth. Despite missing seven regular first graders, the Tigers beat one of the form sides of the competition.
The Titans have only scored more than two tries on three occasions this year. That is an impressively bad statistic for a team with five wins from seven. They may have eeked out some close wins, but only one was against a top 8 side (the Broncos).
The Tigers have a strong record at Leichhardt. Last time they played there, they led competition heavyweights Manly by 26 after half an hour. The Titans may have won 5/7, but they are far from heavyweights.
Tip: Tigers
Ryan
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