Trade Doctor: Positioning for the Playoffs
The Doctor is back to discuss trade strategy during the testing bye and origin period.
By this stage of the season, you should have a firm grasp of where you stand. The Origin period and bye weeks lead directly into the trade deadline for most leagues; making this the time to start shaping your team for the playoffs. Depending on your squad limits, many teams will be forced into playing incomplete lineups throughout the middle rounds this year. Your ladder position will dictate how you should act throughout this period.
If you are down the bottom:
Now is the time for risk taking. You can’t afford losses during this period and need to take advantage of other squads whilst they are weak. Add/drops will be your friend, as will looking to the trade market. I have been in a position where I have come from second last at the start of origin to win a league and strongly advocate a couple of things:
- Look for players not involved in origin: Kiwis and Poms have the advantage of not missing time due to origin. . When you are desperate for wins, you may as well roll the dice on trades. Trading Aaron Woods for Jesse Bromwich might seem crazy, but at the end of the day they will score similarly most weeks and Bromwich won’t miss as many games Try and make a multi-player deal to upgrade other positions, but don’t hold out past lockout and risk a season defining loss.
- Go for high risk/reward guys: Players that might score 8 one week and zero the next two are frustrating for teams at the top looking for consistent scoring, but they are useful players to slot in for matchups you really don’t deserve to win. Hopefully you can score a Wade Graham or Luke Lewis type capable of a try and workhorse in any given week. It might be hard to accept (it SHOULD be hard to accept) but on the low end this may mean a spot in your back row for a Dave Taylor, T-Rex or Tyrone Peachey.
If you are flying high and can afford to cop a loss:
Your early season success gives you more options than the suckers down below. You can either stand pat and hold on to what has got you to the top or aggressively look to take advantage of desperate bottom feeders trying to make the playoffs. I, of course, prefer the latter.
- Guys that are primarily good during origin; the Buhrer’s, Arona’s and Bolton’s of this world, can be flipped to those below who don’t have the luxury of affording a loss. Look to build your strongest 13, then 17, then 19. Realistically, any players beyond that aren’t going to play for you in the finals and it’s worth risking a thinner squad if it’s a more talented squad.
- Start to look to the finals matchups; backs from teams that are struggling come playoff time are useless. Forwards can still get their workhorses, but there is no point in holding out for Uate to fire: face up to the fact some teams are just crap and bail on their backs.
- Capitalise on the weaknesses of others: if you are at the top, look to feed on the injured players of those below. Injured stars have less value to a coach who needs to ‘win now’ than they do to someone who can sit back and wait for their return in 4-6 weeks. Think Cordner, Fifita, Harrison and Cronk.
Thinking of injury, has anyone managed any great trade-rapes so far this year? After Nathan Peats’ season ending ACL injury I tried desperately to find a sucker in my league to no avail. Has anyone else made any noteworthy deals? Let me know in the comments or @aussiepiston
Ryan
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A bloke in our comp gave up Greg Bird for Matt Prior. The same bloke gave Slater to the same team for Sutton last year!
Sutton did look great halfway through last year but that’s a huge deal. Bird for Prior is just nuts!