The Impact of State of Origin
When considering what to write about this week, I thought through a whole range of topics focused primarily on the players selected for the both Origin teams.
Could we compare them on key statistics to see which team was stronger?
Which team has the better defense or misses the most tackles?
Which team has the most creative players?
Which bench is stronger?
The list goes on.
But then I was struck with a thought – what about the teams which supply the bulk of the Origin squad, how are they affected by the loss of their best players? The media rightfully spends a lot of time analysing the two Origin teams in an attempt to provide insight into which team will prevail come Wednesday night but the effect of on the teams playing this weekend isn’t an area of much focus.
So what I want to do in this week’s article is answer the question: What effect does Origin have on the teams that are most affected by Origin 1 and playing this weekend – the Broncos (six players), the Cowboys (four players) and the Bulldogs (four players).
Let’s start with the Brisbane Broncos. They supply six players to the Queensland squad – two backs in Darius Boyd and Justin Hodges and four forwards in Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker, Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire.
Obviously, losing four forwards significantly impacts the Broncos go-forward and defense in the middle of the field. Player responsible for 34% of the total number of metres made by the Broncos this year will be playing Origin and players responsible for 41% of all tackles made by the team are also out. Both Corey Parker (1,133) and Josh McGuire (1,072) have over gained over 1,000 metres this year which will be huge hole to fill come Monday night when they take on the Knights.
The other areas the Broncos suffer in are both tackle breaks and line break assists. Justin Hodges has been a tackle break beast this year with 27 so far while Corey Parker has 26 so the Broncos will miss these two in attack. Hodges also has four line break assists this year with Parker, Thaiday and Boyd all with one. Not huge numbers but shows that the Broncos may struggle to create even though they are only losing two backs this weekend.
Next up is the Cowboys who lose four players to Origin – Jonathan Thurston, Michael Morgan, Matt Scott and James Tamou. Two backs and two forwards and the impact to the side is massive as the graph above shows. Unlike the Broncos, the Cowboys lose most of their attacking and kicking contribution from their side which makes sense when you consider that of the Cowboys 26 try assists this year Thurston has 11 and Morgan has 3 and of the 20 line break assists Thurston has 9 and Morgan 3. In both cases, more than 50% of the contribution this year will be missing this weekend when the Cowboys take on the Tigers. Kick metres is also a big concern with Thurston being the main kicker (3,173m) while Morgan has contributed 914m.
The Cowboys lose 25% of their metres gained and a chunk of line breaks and tackle breaks. Nowhere near as significant as the try assist and line break assist numbers but may be an impact come the weekend. Look for the Cowboys to struggle for points this weekend.
Lastly, the Bulldogs have four player in the NSW Origin team with two of them (David Klemmer and Josh Jackson) being debutants. The other two in Josh Morris and Trent Hodkinson both played in last year’s successful NSW side yet haven’t been in the greatest form this year. So, what do the Bulldogs lose with this quartet being out? Below is the graph:
Of the three teams (Bulldogs, Broncos and Cowboys) the Dogs are the least affected by losing the players they have. The only real significant area is in kick metres where Trent Hodkinson has kicked 2,618 of the Bulldogs 4,826m this year or 54% of the total. They also lose 23.5% of tackles with the biggest contributor being Josh Jackson who has made 343 tackles followed by Trent Hodkinson who has made 185.
Worryingly for NSW, neither Josh Morris or Trent Hodkinson have provided many try assists, tries, line breaks or line break assists. In Morris’s case this is due in part to injury (he has played eight games) but with Hodkinson its purely form.
So in summary, I will be picking the Tigers to beat the Cowboys as I think they will struggle for points and will need someone to step up with the kicking game. Ditto with the Knights who should take care of the Broncos up the middle with four of their pack missing. The Bulldogs don’t really lose too much in the four Origin players so they should still get a win against the Raiders this weekend.
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Latest posts by Paul Wainright (see all)
- The Forward Battle - May 26, 2015
- The halves dilemma - May 24, 2015
- The Impact of State of Origin - May 22, 2015
