The Forward Battle
This week I wanted to take the clichéd approach and do a straight up comparison between the New South Wales and Queensland forwards in advance of the first Origin game on Wednesday night. I think the team that wins the forward battle will go a long way to winning game 1 so let’s see who has the advantage based on form and statistics from season 2015.
Hookers
Let’s start with the captains and number 9’s for both teams – Robbie Farah and Cameron Smith. Both have been in average form for their clubs this year with neither player setting the world on fire, certainly not by their own super-high standards. Let’s not forget that Cameron Smith is a future immortal and Robbie Farah would be the first name on the NSW team sheet such is his experience.
Both radars look very similar with both players averaging very similar receives per game (100 for Farah vs 108 for Smith), the same number of runs (5.5 for Farah vs 5.4 for Smith), very similar metres which makes sense considering they make the same number of runs (53.1 for Farah vs 47.8 for Smith). Both average around 46 tackles per game and miss or have ineffective totals of 3 per game and both have scored 1 try each this year.
The biggest difference between the two in terms of rankings is tackle breaks with Farah totaling 12 for the year against Smiths 8.
Verdict: It’s fair to say on current form there is nothing between these two heading into Origin. Can’t split them.
Front Row
Now let’s look at the front row and see if we can find an advantage for a team. Both NSW & QLD go into the game with two starting front row forwards and two coming off the bench. Both have a debutant prop in the team with David Klemmer making his debut for NSW and Josh McGuire doing the same for QLD.
Firstly, the NSW starting front-rowers. Both Aaron Woods and James Tamou are having solid seasons with Woods really standing out. He leads his peers in three categories – receives, runs and metres. He is near the top of tackle breaks averaging 1.44 per game and his average of 34 tackles per game puts him near the top of that category too. His starting partner is also having a good season being near the top of receives, runs, metres, line breaks, and ineffective tackles.
Comparing the NSW starters with the QLD props shows that NSW may have an advantage. Firstly, Nate Myles is in the lower 50% across a number of categories including runs, metres and both ineffective and missed tackles. Matthew Scott has better looking numbers with decent contributions in receives, runs, metres, tackle breaks and tackles. Concern is his missed tackle numbers with Scott missing 2.1 tackles a game. It will be interesting to see if Farah or Pearce look to go up the middle when Scott is tiring at some point.
Next up is both sets of bench props. NSW have Andrew Fifita and the debutant David Klemmer which QLD have the debutant Josh McGuire and Jacob Lillyman.
Fifita could prove to be a huge difference off the bench. His numbers this year have been awesome offensively whilst leaving some gaps defensively. He leads his peers in tackle breaks and is near the top of receives, runs, metres and line breaks. If NSW can keep it tight for the first 20 then Fifita could come on and rip in, creating opportunities for the backline to capitalize. His defense is a concern with an average of 3 missed or ineffective tackles a game. David Klemmer provides a contrast – solid defense and middle of the road runs, metres and receives and above average tackle breaks. Much of what he brings can’t be measured but it will be interesting to see how much of an impact he has.
The QLD bench is solid. Jacob Lillyman has solid defense with good metres gained and runs. Not much in terms of tackle breaks or line breaks so I doubt we will see Lillyman providing the impact of a Klemmer or Fifita. McGuire provides a bit of a difference off the bench with solid line break and tackle break contributions as well as good metre and runs metrics. Defense isn’t great compared to his peers but he does make 35 tackles a game, second only to Aiden Tolman in terms of total tackles.
Verdict: NSW get the decision here based on form. The starting props in Tamou and Woods have better numbers than Scott and Myles whilst the NSW bench looks stronger primarily because of Fifita’s attacking contribution.
Back Row
Lastly, the second row & lock positions. NSW have five second row/locks – the three starters in Beau Scott, Ryan Hoffman and Josh Jackson and the two bench players in Trent Merrin and Boyd Cordner. QLD have four with the three starters Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra and Corey Parker and Matt Gillett coming off the bench. There is a quite a large difference between the styles of these players and the radars really highlight this variation.
Firstly, the NSW starters. Ryan Hoffman has solid if unspectacular numbers with decent metres and runs, good line breaks and tackle breaks but relatively high missed tackles at 2 per game. If the teams were selected on stats alone, Beau Scott wouldn’t be in the side and his radar shows why. Picked for his defense, Scott has better contribution in attack in both tackle breaks and line breaks along with offloads. His defense hasn’t been great either with a combined 3 ineffective/missed tackles per game. Josh Jackson has a great radar and people seem to forget he is NSW utility back as well as lock forward. He has played 5/8, centre and second row for the Bulldogs this year so if NSW get an injury to a back , I’d expect Jackson to slot in. His radar shows low run and metre contributions and relatively high ineffective tackles. However, his versatility is shown by good try assist numbers (3 this year) 2 line break assists and 35 tackles per game.
Next, the QLD starting three. Those that play Supercoach know that Corey Parker is a statistical beast and his radar shows it. Near the top of offloads, metres, runs and tackle breaks shows what Parker will do. Sam Thaiday has had to prove himself to Wayne Bennett this year and it looks like he has been working on his defense. Near leading missed/ineffective tackles are the highlight along with 35 tackles a game. If Parker and Thaiday bring solid metres and defense, Aidan Guerra is the attacking player that will try and bust tackles wide of the ruck. His radar shows great attack – good line break assists, tries, line breaks, tackle breaks and try assists. Not huge metres and a bit of a concern over defense – over 4 missed or ineffective tackles per game.
The Bench
Lastly, the bench players. For NSW, Trent Merrin should provide solid go-forward off the bench and ranks highly in runs, metres and offloads whilst his missed tackles of 1 per game is near the lowest of all his peers. Boyd Cordner has solid metres contribution but the biggest concern must be his defense with nearly 5 missed or ineffective tackles per game.
For QLD, Matt Gillett’s only standout metric is tackles with an average of 39 per game near the top when compare with his peers. Defense isn’t great, not huge metre contribution but Gillett does have the ability to play in the centres as well as in the 2nd row which is a plus.
Verdict:
The starting three for QLD get the nod for me – I just like the balance between the solidity of Parker and Thaiday and the attack of Guerra. Scott fails to impress while Jackson’s all-round contribution is a positive. Pick of the bench players is Trent Merrin followed by Cordner who will be looking to run off club mate Pearce and add to the try tally.
Queensland for the win.
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Latest posts by Paul Wainright (see all)
- The Forward Battle - May 26, 2015
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- The Impact of State of Origin - May 22, 2015
