Round Two NRLCEO Previews
After watching the first round of NRL action, many teams threw up performances varying greatly from preseason expectations. Was it a one-off, or a case of genuine improvement?
I’ll preview this week’s matches from an NRLCEO perspective; how should your lineup be named come Friday?
Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs
Without Brett Stewart at the back, Manly are all sorts of average. He sparks the attack, and only twice from seven games without Snake in 2013 could Manly score more than 3 tries. This has huge implications for the outside backs in your fantasy team from Manly. I’d be inclined to name other starters if you can; facing what many think is a strong Rabbitohs side. I rate Beau Champion’s defence on the Rabbits left side, so if you are forced to play Manly backs, try sticking with the potent right edge.
The Bunnies had a big win in round 1, thumping the Roosters 28-8. This score line flatters them; the Rabbitohs scored only 4 tries despite a mountain of possession (57%) and a big disparity in the penalty count (12-6). The halves and centres lack creativity and the wings are both long past their ‘best-before’ date. Greg Inglis single handedly managed to save this contest by barging over three times.
This matchup is one for the forwards. I’ll stick my neck out and say a low scoring contest. Name your stars from either side, but any ‘fringe’ guys should best be swapped out for this week.
Broncos v Cowboys
Revisiting the matchup from the final of the Auckland 9’s in front of a likely sell-out crowd at Suncorp will make for a big match. Both sides are coming off wins in round 1 and back to back wins early provides a strong foundation for a good season.
The Cowboys looked inept early before storming home over the Raiders. The most interesting thing for me was both Taumalolo and Cooper playing 80 minutes in the back row. The pair are both potential try scorers running wide off Thurston, and the big minutes keeps them in the workhorse hunt as well. I’ll be looking forward to seeing if this keeps up in round 2, as the representative front row of Scott and Tamou played fewer minutes and feel short of NRLCEO points as a result. Along with the back row and Thurston, the wing combination of Winterstein and Feldt are starters in any squad.
The Broncos showed little in attack in round one, surprising no one. Expect more of the same this week. Josh Hoffman has lost all fantasy value after being moved to five eighth. He possesses no natural flair for the position and now doesn’t get the opportunity for easy points afforded for outside backs. Barba showed enough flashes of brilliance to give coaches hope, and I’ll be keen to see how he progresses over the next few rounds. He’d be the only Broncos back I’d name. In terms of forwards, the glut the Broncos have make it tough to pick who will shine each week. Parker, Gillett and Thaiday should still start in any squad, and most coaches would be hard pressed to leave Hannant or McGuire out of a starting line-up. I’m tipping a Cowboys win, so with plenty of tackling to do Broncos forwards should still hold value.
Warriors v Dragons
The Dragons have a great record against the Warriors, winning the last 8 matchups on the trot, and managed to rack up 44 points in a come-from-behind win over the Tigers on the weekend. What will they manage this week against a Warriors side coming off a demoralising loss to the lowly Eels?
My money is bugger all.
Beating a wooden spoon destined Tigers outfit on a hot afternoon in March doesn’t rate with me. The Dragons have a small pack and the loss of De Belin will only serve to hurt them more against a Warriors side that will be desperate to show it can be relevant in 2014. The big Kiwi pack should get a roll on and I expect Shaun Johnson and Sam Tomkins to create havoc.
In terms of fantasy value, I rate any Warriors 1-7 worth a start, and Friend is as certain a workhorse as you can get in NRLCEO. The rest of the pack is well rotated, and probably holds little value outside a wide running Simon Mannering. For the Dragons, Trent Merrin and Ben Creagh remain valuable on recent efforts and are starters in nearly any squad.
Storm v Panthers
Both sides struggled in the first half last week before powering home with strong performances late. It’s a tough matchup to pick and I’d be inclined to stick with any proven performers from last week.
Cooper Cronk returns for the Storm to provide some added direction to the Melbourne squad. I expect this will result in a more crisp attack and better scoring opportunities for the backline. In terms of forwards, Jesse Bromwich might be the only FR/BR guy you’d want to name. Surely it was just an off week for Ryan Hoffman?
The Panthers have undergone massive change in the offseason, and it’s tough to know what to expect. I am high on the Panthers, but the Storm in Melbourne is a tough ask for any squad. I see enough tries in this Panthers outfit to keep the backs in your squad, and with Grant still out the starting forwards all remain live chances for workhorses. I see no reason to drop any Panthers from your squad.
Roosters v Eels
I’d be lying if I said I thought either side would perform like they did last week. If it weren’t for Peats being suspended, I’d have been tempted to tip the Eels against the SBWless chooks. But alas, it isn’t to be, and I expect the Roosters to win this week to jump-start their 2014 campaign.
The Eels dominated the Warriors all over the park, with both wingers crossing for trebles. With Peats out and a rookie dummy half, I predict a much sloppier performance in round two on both sides of the ball. I won’t be naming any Eels in my squad this week, but I’ll be prepared to eat my words on this one. The Eels pack is heavily rotated, and probably of little value. Ben Smith could be value for a workhorse and should be a free agent in most leagues.
The Roosters attack loses a dimension without SBW, but this isn’t a one man band. I expect JWH to step up after a lacklustre performance last week, but I worry a big win could leave the forwards short of workhorses. I’ll tip most of the Roosters attack to be directed down its left edge, targeting the shaky defensive combo of Hopoate and Toutai. I predict Jennings will give Hopoate a refresher course in the NRL with a massive game. Name any chooks backs you have, but stay away from forwards not named JWH in this matchup.
Titans v Tigers
The Tigers defence let in 44 points against a side I refuse to rate, and a warm Sunday afternoon game on the Gold Coast won’t do them any favours. The Titans are going to put at least 30 past them, and the only question for me is whether the Tigers can keep it interesting with some scoring of their own.
The Tigers left edge looked dangerous early against the Dragons with some flashy play from Tedesco but the attack turned impotent around the same time Liam Fulton left the field. I’m not sure if this is a case of causation or just correlation. Liam Fulton is named for the Tigers, but watch for late mail to see if he plays. That head knock was Tony De Las Heras-esque and I’m not naming him in my squad just yet.
The Titans were unlucky not to rack up a bigger score last week. Albert Kelly was close to fantasy gold, but a desperate Sharks defence and some creative refereeing stopped him just short of points. If he can put in a similar performance in round 2, the speedy backline of the Titans will be lining up for some meat pies. Name any that you have!
Knights v Raiders
The Knights were woeful against the Panthers but were heavily hit by injuries. Returning home, many are expecting a better performance second up. I’m not so sure: two key players will still be missing from their ‘spine’ and a reshuffling of men in key positions doesn’t give me confidence.
The Raiders were brilliant early before fading against the Cowboys in Townsville. No one expected them to win, and they didn’t. It’s tough to predict how the playing group will react; their early success against the Cows could give them confidence, or the inability to convert the lead to a win could leave them shaken.
I’m banking on a big Raiders win. I don’t like inconsistency in key positions from week to week and the Knight’s I feel just have less points in them. I’m growing less confident of this prediction with each passing day, but I’ll be naming Milford and Papalii in my squad and hoping for the best.
Bulldogs v Sharks
Neither side has given me reason to believe they can top 12 points in this matchup. I predict a dour contest, with a lot of ‘possession’ football. Expect a tough forward battle without any highlight reel plays.
Carney returning may spark the Sharks, but Ayshford and Wright are the least creative centre pairing since… I don’t know when. Losing Gallen and Fifita leaves minutes for some lower end forwards Matt Prior, Arona, Graham and Heighington to provide value for coaches looking for some pack depth.
The Bulldogs value will be in Tolman, Graham and Ennis. The rest of their side does nothing for me, and I’m down to only Mitch Brown for depth in my league. If I see nothing from the Dogs this week, I’ll be casting him aside for the first rookie winger to get a call-up this year. Josh Reynolds needs to go to a whole new level for this squad, with its lack of a quality ball-player, to do anything in 2014 and until I see something, I won’t be tipping them.
Ryan
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