How do the potential NSW fullbacks compare?
This week we’d like to introduce to you a new blogger!
NRLCEOs love stats. But no one loves stats as much as Paul Wainwright. So I know you’re going to enjoy what he delivers.
His website is called 80 sets of six! The site will be dedicated to exploring current topics in Rugby League using a data driven analytical approach. It provides a different perspective to the mainstream media and in doing so allows fans to look at the game differently.
Take it away Paul!
The first topic I want to dive into is that of NSW Origin fullback options, specifically a comparison between Matt Moylan and Josh Dugan and what each brings to the side. To do this, I am going to rank both across a number of defensive and attacking metrics both against other fullbacks and also against half-backs and five eighths.
Before we dive in, let me introduce the radar chart. The radar chart is a great way to easily visually display a players key attributes in comparison to his peers. The way we do this is by ranking a player against his peers returning a score between 0 and 1. A score of 1 means that player is the top vs his peers in that category whilst a score of 0 means he is bottom compared with his peers.
An example of a player at the top of all categories compared with his peers is below:
This guy would be impossibly good. He is basically the best in all categories against his peers – he leads his peers in try assists, kick return metres, misses the fewest tackle and scores the most tries.
However, the real world is not like this in any way, with most players ranking high in some categories and lower than others. Each players radar is unique and highlights their key strengths and weaknesses.
So lets have a look at Matt Moylan compared with all fullbacks that have played 5 games or more this year.
Moylan leads his peers in a number of attacking statistics – try assists and line break assists and is in the top 40% in line breaks. This is what I think will appeal most to Laurie Daley as NSW need to score more points this year and Moylan is a player that knows how to put players into gaps both close to the line and in general play. Considering the lack of tries by NSW in last years Origin series, I believe these attacking stats may give Moylan an edge over some of his peers. The other key attacking feature of of Moylan’s radar is the sheer number of receives he has had (344) putting him second only behind Kurt Gidley in terms of receives per game.
Defensively, Moylan has issues and Ive heard a number of these raised recently. He is second last in missed tackles per game (1.88) yet he ranks in the middle in terms of total number of tackles per game which isn’t a great combination.
Moylan isn’t a great running fullback either – don’t expect huge kick returns as you would from Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (avg 207m per game) or Greg Inglis (131m per game) with Moylan averaging 112m per game.
So lets have a look at Josh Dugan who whilst being injured was pretty much the unanimous vote for NSW fullback:
Moylan and Dugan are almost opposite on most categories with Dugan being near the top defensively, making solid meters with the ball whilst breaking tackles yet providing not much at all in the way of line break assists or try assists.
Its because of this difference in the two players that I think that if fit, Dugan will play in the centres so Daley can get the most out of him breaking tackles, returning kicks and in defense and he will play Moylan at fullback so he can get involved close to the line when NSW are attacking.
Some other interesting fullback radars are below:
Jack Wighton is having a stellar season and it wont be long before he is in the Origin mix with numbers like these. Great defensively, great run metres, solid try contribution and respectable attacking stats make for a pretty complete player.
Greg Inglis hasn’t had his best season and his radar shows that. He is down in tries and is missing tackles whilst his runs and metre gains aren’t special. He is still a demon in attack with great line break and try assist numbers but his overall radar isn’t great.
RTS is a beast of runs and metres gained – its no wonder the Dragons put the ball out every kick in the Anzac day game! His tackle breaks and line breaks are near the top, he scores tries and is middle of the road for try assists. Interestingly, he doesn’t make many tackles which gives him the energy to average 200+ metres a game!
James Tedesco has the best all round attacking radar of the group and this may mean he plays some part in Origin this year. Great try scoring, assisting as well as exceptional tackle break and line break stats make him an attacking beast.
Like Inglis, Billy Slater has had a down year. Nothing exceptional to call out besides the fact here is nothing exceptional to call out which for Billy Slater isn’t the norm. Still doing well in line break assists and pretty involved with a high number of receives although way down on metres and runs.
So, that’s the fullbacks so far this season – hopefully you have enjoyed it!
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Latest posts by Paul Wainright (see all)
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