Choices determine character – and victories!
I can guarantee there is at least one CEO out there that at the start of this season drafted Ash Harrison, Liam Fulton, Todd Carney, Beau Ryan, and David Williams and thought “I’ve got the basis of a pretty good team here.” And lets be honest – going off last year’s form, they would be fairly correct in that assumption.
But assumption being the mother of all stuff-ups, it brings us to Round 19 where they have all been either forced to retire permanently or have been suspended for at least the rest of the year.
The trick with fantasy competitions like NRLCEO, is to not only recognise the quality in the existing crop of players, but to be able to speculate on the up and comers and take calculated risks in drafting them. Players’ form waxes and wanes. Not too long ago Nathan Merritt was the try-scoring golden boy of the NRL and fantasy comps everywhere. Now Semi Radradra has seemingly taken over his mantle. How long will his reign last, no one knows – but for this year, Radradra is as hot as that late night drunken kebab you get with too much chilli sauce when you’re trying to impress your (equally drunken) mates, and you want to look tough.
For years, Harrison and Fulton sat among the pantheon of the NRL’s workhorse gods, but now they have been relegated to legend. A story passed down amongst CEO’s who remember fondly their workhorse feats from days gone by.
If you play in a keeper league (like I do), you have to try and recruit the next big thing, the day before he looks like becoming the next big thing. It becomes a game where you have to keep watch and take note of the young guys who are scoring workhorse rates in the low 30’s, and then trying to predict the likelihood of them getting more time on the field to make up the difference to get them over the 40 mark.
That’s all well and good for forwards, but how do you predict backs?
I’ll admit, it’s a LOT harder.
You can try and judge the outside backs by the quality of their halves. Manly’s backs certainly reap the benefits of having a quality #6 and #7 in Foran and DCE. But on the other hand, there are quality players like Hayne, Tedesco, Mansour, and Croker have all managed to consistently cross the stripe through their own sheer brilliance.
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Ben “expert” Ikin
And it’s not as simple as picking players from teams tipped to do well. In the Big League season preview, NRL expert Ben Ikin selected the Tigers to finish dead last. They’re currently in 10th, and it’s not impossible that they could finish holding the wooden spoon, but somehow Pat Richards is the NRL’s leading point scorer. Richards isn’t even in the top 10 try scorers, and Wests don’t even have a positive points differential. Go figure.
To further illustrate the crapshoot that is selecting top point-scoring backs based on “good” teams, lets take a look at the current top 20 leading try scorers for 2014.
Teams currently placed: 1-4: have 6 of the top 20 try scorers.
Teams ranked 5-8: have 4
Teams 9-12: have 6
And the bottom four teams ranked 12-16: have 4
So the top 8 teams have as many top try scorers as the bottom 8. Coincidentally, going by Ben Ikin’s pre-season predictions, the top 8 still have as many top try scorers as the bottom 8, so work that out…
ROUND 18
Speaking of crapshoots, my tipping has suffered quite a bit of late. Let’s chalk that up to my recent bout of World Cup fever. Thankfully the symptoms have almost completely cleared up. But just until they completely subside, I’m going to put my tips in the hands of the NRL Gods and resort to using a coin toss to determine my predictions, with Heads being the home team, and tails the visitors.
SEA EAGLES v TIGERS
Heads. Manly will win this match. It’s hard not to see them winning this, and my coin agrees. It’s such a sure thing that even David Williams is betting on it! Seriously though, now he’s NOT playing for the rest of the year, does that mean he CAN gamble?
But will it be by a large margin? Heads says yes, tails no.
Tails; Manly in a tight one. Both teams only have a couple backing up from Origin, but Wests always seem to lift with Farah in the side. He may just make the difference between a loss and a flogging.
Where will the majority of points come? Heads says forwards, tails backs.
Tails; You probably could’ve picked it, but the NRL Gods have confirmed it.
WARRIORS v EELS
Heads. Warriors will win. Why? Because the coin said, but more telling is by the fact that they’re playing at Mount Smart Stadium.
By a lot? Tails. This will also be a close game. Rumours have it that Chris Sandow is set to fill in for Jarryd Hayne at fullback. Anyone would think that Ricky Stuart is still coaching Parra with a wacky decision like that.
Majority of points? Heads. It seems that the Origin period has the NZ forwards well rested, and that they will roll the Eels through the middle of the field and that Friend and Mannering will lead the way for the Kiwis.
STORM v BULLDOGS
Tails. Bulldogs in an upset. And so begins Canterbury-Bankstown’s post Origin run towards the finals. For some reason, the Dogs are sitting in 3rd, and the Storm are 8th, but the bookies have the higher ranked side as long priced outsiders to win this match.
By a lot? Tails. Reynolds is out, and Morris may be sidelined, but neither played last week when they took down Manly at ‘Fortress Brookvale,’ so the Bulldogs won’t run away with the match, but they’ll get the 2 points.
Majority of points? Heads. With Jackson, Williams and Ennis all back in the pack, it seems the blue and whites will get the win through the forwards according to the NRL Gods, and my Coin of Destiny.™
TITANS v RAIDERS
Tails. Canberra, it seems, are to get their first win in 7 weeks, and keep the wooden spoon at bay for another week. The Titans, despite winning against the Rabbits on Monday have failed to notch a win for the previous 8 weeks, so they are in a similar boat.
By a lot? Heads. Oh boy! The Green Machine is gonna whoop some ass this weekend.
Majority of points? Heads. The forwards again! Apparently the Coin of Destiny™ is predicting a hell of a game with Canberra’s forwards muscling their way across the line repeatedly in this clash. Before, I would’ve written this game off as a nothing match, and probably skipped it, but you can bet I’ll be tuning in attentively to this one now!
SHARKS v KNIGHTS
Tails. The Knights will get this one, says the coin. After the disruption in the Sharks camp, it’s not surprising. Though after taking two big scalps in a row, this match would seem like a simple win by comparison. But I’m not gonna argue with the coin.
By a lot? Tails. It seems the boost from the recent gaining of major and sleeve sponsors will get the Sharkies close, but the coins says that Knights are finally going to put in and attempt to send coach Bennett by playing the way they should have all year.
Points? Tails. Yep the coin confirms that the Knights backs are FINALLY going to live up to the Crystal Ballboy’s preseason expectations. THIS will be the week that Leilua performs like I thought he would, that Boyd silences his critics, and the Knights curse me for dropping Gidley and Roberts.
PANTHERS v BRONCOS
Heads. The number 1 ranked team in the NRL is set to continue their winning ways this weekend.By a lot? Tails. Brisbane is usually a Friday night team, so the night game will suit them, and being so far out from Origin, their Maroon stars will have had time to recuperate. But it still won’t be enough for the win.
By a lot? Tails. Brisbane is usually a Friday night team, so the night game will suit them, and being so far out from Origin, their Maroon stars will have had time to recuperate. But it still won’t be enough for the win.
Points? Tails. Mansour and Co. are destined to put the Panthers’ points on the board this weekend via the backline, and should help warm up what will be a cold, cold night in the Blue Mountains.
There you have it. Round 18’s predictions courtesy of a coin toss. If it works, I am a genius, if not – blame the coin.
The Crystal Ballboy
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