Captains Call – What the Stat?
What The Stat?
After spending the weekend arguing with my room mate about the change in stats it’s becoming harder and harder to argue the point. I was prediction a swing in stats going the other way with more tackles to starting forwards and a drop off with the bench. As the Workhorse Watcher has shown week 2 this year has seen half as many workhorses as last year. Seeing as we use the same stats provider as last year the only reason I can begin to justify the huge discrepancy is their interruption of a tackle has changed not counting the third and fourth man in or a flop. Or and I really hope this isn’t the reason but losing what I’m going to assume was their biggest league client in “League Live” has caused a drop off of their effort and caring.
So is this permanent or just an aberration? God I’m hoping the latter is the case with the likes of Jesse Bromwich scoring a workhorse with every other stats around and missing out by five on NRLCEO. I can forgive the tackles but it baffles me that the runs are different, I can only assume when he caught the grubber on their line and submitted to the tackle they didn’t think that was classified as a run. Anyway it’s too soon to tell and hopefully in the coming weeks we see the stats begin to normalise.
Still on the Forwards?
Week 2 saw a huge shift in points favouring the backs. Chalk this up to the stats or Newcastle Knights being a turnstile but still this is worrying. Three Souths backs made the top 10 with Aaron Grey and Bryson Goodwin tying for the second best score of the week on 17 followed by Alex Johnston rounding out the top with 10. While as a Souths fan I would love for these players to be in the top every week you have to put this down to week defence more than skill. Only James Graham scored a double workhorse with Cameron Smith, Iosia Soliola and Martin Taupau also making the top scoreres . Smith ended up on exactly 40 after falling short last week but again playing a weaker team managed two try assists and a line break assist to see him squeeze into the 10. Taupau and Soliola made the top getting the workhorse/try double. Personally I still plan to persist with forward captains for the time being as I prefer the guaranteed 8+ that comes with a good forward than risking the zero. Of course there are no guarantees with the likes of Shaun Fensom and Aiden Tolman who graced the top 10 last week both going down with concussions and getting the dreaded zero. I’m sure this would have hurt a lot of teams as I know I only didn’t lose in a comp because of Fensom not scoring. Both have been named this week and should bounce back.
Can Teddy be stopped?
James Tedesco is killing it smashing out 20 points this week. The only problem with all his success is he should be a shoe in for the Blues and will miss games accordingly. Up against the Titans this week I would have no problem in captaining him and with only two zero games last year he could be the exception to the risky back captain.
When to Captain a back
There is no denying backs score a lot of points, but consistency is the problem. Certain teams like the Broncos pride themselves on defence limiting their opposition to low scores if all goes to plan. If you captain a back against teams like this it’s a risky move. I feel I’ve drafted strongly enough to warrant not having the go for the hail-mary of going all in on a back and going for the more consistent but lower points is a smarter move. Injuries or the bye/ Origin rounds could see me change this with a small squad playing a larger one but I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it. If you have backs coming up against any of the bottom three sides in Roosters, Manly or the Knights its not a horrible move in picking a back if your forecast points are considerably lower than your opponent with these sides letting in over 60 points in the first two weeks. Again though I would only be picking a winger or fullback in this case as while centres can score points and try assists do add up the cross field kick/ cut out negates this and there is a reason the top try scorer is always a winger.
Top Honours
Only two players managed to keep in touch with the top scorers two weeks in a row. James Graham scoring a double workhorse again and James Tedesco with a treble managed to score over 10 points two weeks in a row. Be interesting to see whose average is better after a few more weeks with Graham being as solid as ever and Tedesco coming up to some stiffer opposition after the Titans this week.
Where my Captains fall
My choices in Sam Burgess x 2, James Graham and Aaron Woods served me well this week with scores of 6, 10 and 6. I will be persisting with the same choices this week as I’m hoping Burgess and Woods have more work and responsibility coming up against better defensive sides. All the time spent walking back after tries and setting up for kick offs really adds up when your pushing for that double metre eater or workhorse but both should go closer this week and its been too long since Sam crossed the line. Hoping to continue my undefeated run going at this stage and am praying for no concussions or injuries to my forwards.
Players to Watch in Week 3
Cowboys backs look in for a field day coming off their loss to the Eels, unfortunately they like to spread their tries around but if you have the choice between one of them and another I would start them. Subsequently watch out for the Cowboys forwards as we saw Souths players suffer to get the involvements required with substandard defence from the Knights. The same can be said for the Raiders/Knights game as the Knights seem to be persisting with their line up. Tony Williams is getting closer and closer to a workhorse so chuck him on the bench if you’re unsure on another.
Good luck to everyone week 3 and hopefully in the coming weeks we can get a better idea of how the stats are affected this year and hopefully see it move more towards the norm.
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James Douglas
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