Trade Doctor: Fensom, Dugan, Tolman and Taufua
Question: Should I trade Jorge Taufua and Aiden Tolman for Josh Dugan and Shaun Fensom? What about just Tolman for Fensom?
The Trade Doctor is excited to look into this trade. Taufua I rate as the best winger in the comp, Fensom is Fensom and Tolman and Dugan are great players in their respective positions. First of all the Doctor will delve into who you’d rather have; Fensom or Tolman, before delving into the broader four player deal.
|
2013 |
2014 |
||||||
| Games | Points | Average | Games | Points | Average | ||
| Tolman |
24 |
79 |
3.3 |
4 |
20 |
5 |
|
| Fensom |
20 |
78 |
3.9 |
3 |
14 |
4.7 |
|
Shaun Fensom is one of the biggest names in fantasy rugby league, and many NRLCEO coaches go wild over him. The Doctor is respectfully not in this group. Fensom is a very solid player; a tackle pig who is a virtual lock for a workhorse every time he takes the field.
Just like with an NRL club, the forward pack of your NRLCEO team should lay your foundation with consistent points each week. Consistency is Fensom’s middle name, and a guaranteed four points a week is nothing to sneeze at; however that’s all Fensom offers. Only twice in 2013 could Fensom better 4 points. He mightn’t lose you many matches, but he isn’t going to win you any either.
Aiden Tolman has been on fire in the opening rounds of 2014. Through four rounds he is averaging a combined 54 runs and tackles to go along with 151 metres. This contrasts with 2013 form where Tolman played less consistent minutes and was a shakier NRLCEO starter.
In any other year, Fensom v Tolman would be an easy decision. The Doctor mightn’t be as high on Fensom as everyone else, but the numbers over the years have shown him to be a better player. There are a couple of extra factors that need to be considered in this matchup-
Fensom Injured? Fensom left the game on the weekend with an elbow injury, and there is no concrete evidence on his return date. How long can your squad afford to be down a star backrower?
Tolman on the outer? Is Tolman still wanted at Belmore? Along with James Graham being re-signed, the Fifita “signing” had it looking like Tolman might be a man playing for his next contract. With the Fifita deal nixed, Tolman’s place at Belmore is looking at lot more comfortable. Will he continue playing with the same fire as through the first four rounds now that he knows where his next meal is coming from?
Kasiano returning? Sam Kasiano and Greg Eastwood both look close to NRL returns, starting to gain match fitness in NSW Cup. Once props of such quality make it back to the NRL side, Tolman is sure to see his minutes dip.
The Doctor wouldn’t want any part of this deal right now. There are too many variables at play with both players. Fensom is definitely the better player but I’ve seen ‘rumours’ regarding his injury varying from two weeks on the sideline to out for the season.
My verdict on this player swap is to sit on Twitter and react based on the first source you trust reporting on the Fensom injury: Fensom might be the better player but he is no good to anyone on the sideline. If you hear he is missing anything more than a few weeks, Tolman could be a mighty good replacement.
Tolman and Taufua for Fensom and Dugan
After stating that I couldn’t decide on a trade involving Fensom and Tolman, let’s just complicate the matter further by throwing in two extra (injured!) players and see if it provides a simpler answer.
|
2013 |
2014 |
||||||
| Games | Points | Average | Games | Points | Average | ||
| Taufua |
22 |
104 |
4.7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|||||||
| Dugan |
11 |
37 |
3.4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Jorge Taufua was a revelation in 2013 and the first winger to become a part of the Doctor’s squad on draft day. Returning NRLCEO coaches will know the awful feeling of seeing a big fat duck-egg next to a player’s name and scoring from your outside backs can be somewhat more inconsistent than in your forward pack. That is why the Doctor likes Taufua; 29 linebreaks in 2013 kept the scoreboard ticking over. He is the anti-Fensom; 5 times last year Taufua scored zero, but 5 times he scored 9 or more points. This man can win you matchups on his own.
Josh Dugan scarred the Doctors memory after captaining an opponent to victory in 2013. The Doctor thought Dugan was an NRLCEO star coming into this article, but boy oh boy do the numbers show otherwise. Dugan averaged just under 3.5 points a game in a limited 11 appearances in 2013, and the numbers only get more interesting. Of the 37 points Dugan scored, 32 came in 3 games. That leaves just 5 points between the other 8 fixtures he played.
Dugan has the same match-winning potential as Taufua, and can explode to win a match for your side; however he lacks the more consistent week-to-week numbers of Taufua. If you have a side losing by 8+ points each week, Dugan might be a guy you look to as a boom or bust player. Just be prepared for a lot more ‘bust’ than ‘boom’
Verdict: Would I prefer Tolman and Taufua to Dugan and Fensom?
The Doctor rates Taufua, and so do the numbers from last year. He is coming off injury, but so is Dugan; and Fensom remains under an injury cloud. This trade is quite complicated, as no two players play the same position to help line it up. The Doctor favours the recent form of Tolman and 2013 form of Taufua over the questionable injury to Fensom and inconsistency of Josh Dugan. Numbers from the bigger 2013 sample size also favour the T&T combo at 8ppg v 7.3ppg.
Though as with all cross positional trades – Take care! A lot will come down to your replacements. If giving up Dugan means you need to start Sam Perrett at fullback, you might need to think twice.
Ryan
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