Workhorse Watch Week 16
Amid all the injuries and self pity over my team’s dismal workhorse performance last week it was remiss of me not to highlight the situation of Liam Fulton. The Tigers back rower has been ruled out for the season after suffering concussions on an almost weekly basis. As tough as a call as it may be, ensuring player safety remains paramount and I applaud Fulton and the Tigers for taking this precaution. It appears this season that rugby league stakeholders have finally awoken to the fact that concussions present a real threat to the sport and to players’ well being.
For years so called experts have refuted concerns and still this year we have high profile people like Phil Gould expressing his fear over the softening of the game. In April he wrote about a man he once spoke to who said “the media, smart lawyers and concerned doctors would eventually have their way in watering this game down to nothing more than glorified touch football.”
But my favourite excerpt from that particular column was this; “It is virtually impossible to argue with people who espouse opinions, even though they’ve never actually played the game or have any worthwhile knowledge or qualifications to speak on the issues.” How ironic then that he continues to ignore the experts known as doctors and yet freely airs his own.
The argument that often comes up from that side of the debate is that there isn’t enough evidence. They say experts are yet to prove the link between head knocks and permanent brain damage and dementia. The moment I hear this I think about big tobacco who for years said there was no link between smoking and cancer. The first evidence will also be the first sign it’s too late. Let’s err on the side of caution now.
Still on the injury front and Ashley Harrison has brought forward his retirement due to an ongoing neck injury. I was astounded two weeks ago when Harrison took the field against Melbourne and it appears my questioning of the decision was, unfortunately, entirely valid. Harrison is another true workhorse of our time; a consistent performer who scored 7 workhorse tries in the opening 9 rounds this season before going down with injury.
WORKHORSE OF THE WEEK:
Josh McGuire:
This pleases me very much. McGuire is such a no nonsense workhorse that gets the job done week in week out. The Broncos prop has only missed out on a workhorse try once this season and that was back in round 1 where he had 36 involvements in 46 minutes. His double workhorse on the weekend now lifts his average up to 1 per game and 14 for the season. His 55 tackles and 71 involvements are the most by a front rower this season.
WORKHORSE PACK OF THE WEEK (Round 16)
8. Josh McGuire: 55 tackles + 16 hitups = 71
9. Cameron Smith: 52 tackles + 5 hitups = 57
10. Kade Snowden: 42 tackles + 13 hitups = 55
11. Paul Gallen: 41 tackles + 26 hitups = 67
12. Jamie Buhrer: 41 tackles + 14 hitups = 55
13. Sam Burgess: 46 tackles + 19 hitups =65
14. Ryan Hinchcliffe: 48 tackles + 5 hit ups = 53
15. Shaun Fensom: 44 tackles + 9 hitups = 53
CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR
After a record number of players last week this week is a little quieter with only two entrants. Something tells me Luke Burgess is going to wear this as a badge of honour seeing as though 39 marks his highest total for the season.
Luke Burgess: 27 tackles + 12 hitups = 39
Wade Graham: 28 tackles + 11 hitups = 39
STATS PER MINUTE
Excel spreadsheet on my screen, who’s most idle in my team?
DJ Workhorse doesn’t normally take requests but that’s mainly because DJ Workhorse has never had one. This week however there has been one and I was only too happy to oblige. Actually that’s not true. It was a pain in the arse. But if someone is prepared to not only read the Workhorse Watch but then go to the effort of getting in touch, then spending some time compiling some spreadsheets is the least I can do.
Jack Bilson wants to know who are the most ineffective players based on Contribution Value Rating (CVR). CVR is highly subjective with a combination of up to 50 different statistical categories taken into account depending on the statistics company in question and even then what a player brings to a side, their “contribution” is somewhat subjective.
Here at the Workhorse Watch, we focus on Stats per Minute (SPM). A very simple equation where we take a player’s total number of involvements (hit ups and tackles) and divide by the minutes played. Like all stats, the numbers then need to be interpreted and factors like role in the side and how much time a player will spend on the field must then be considered.
So who are the most ineffective? There are a number of players like Braith Anasta and Ben Hunt who can play in the forwards but who haven’t this season so it’s unfair to say that because Braith has an SPM of 0.23 for the year, that he’s the most ineffective forward. Besides, here are lots of other reasons you can argue why Braith is ineffective that have nothing to do with SPM.
It should come as no surprise that the most ineffective forward in NRLCEO in terms of SPM is Tony Williams. Williams has an SPM of 0.38, averaging just 25.8 involvements despite playing 80 minutes every game. What’s astounding though, is that 4 out of the top 5 most ineffective forwards in terms of SPM are current NSW players! No wonder Paul Gallen hogged the ball so much in Game II, he knows how rubbish some of his team mates really are! Sorry Gal.
As further proof that all this must be taken in ones stride you need only look at the top three most effective forwards based on stats per minute to realise that one must interpret the data carefully. The top three players have played just 4 games between them all season. It’s not hard to get elbow deep in hard work when you only have to do it for 5 or 10 minutes, once or twice a season.
The real marvels come a little further down the list with players like Martin Kennedy, Ben Hannant, Nate Myles, Brenton Lawrence and Aiden Tolman all regular workhorse try scorers with high SPMs. And what of NRLCEO’s leading workhorses? Sam Burgess (0.72) ranks 129th, Robbie Farah (0.74) ranks 118th and Cameron Smith (0.67) ranks 154th.
In truth though, SPM doesn’t really say anything about how “valuable” or “effective” a forward is, especially when it comes to workhorse tries. Ultimately it comes down to a combination of involvements and time on the field; and one doesn’t work without the other. But if you know the first half the equation, and keep an eye on injury updates and late mail reports, you might just unlock the next workhorse gem.
JUST QUICKLY
* One of the great things about NRLCEO is its ability to correct the natural order of things from time to time. It can halt the run of the most in-form fantasy team, ensuring no NRLCEO gets too cocky about how well their team is doing.
* For me it came in round 8 when after an unbeaten start to the season, winning week in week out by massive margins and with high scores, I was defeated by the one man I’d berated from the get go about his ordinary team.
* Last week it happened in my comp again, not to me, but to Webster and the then 4th placed Goulburn Warriors. The Warriors were on an 8 game winning streak but were brought crashing down to Earth at the hands of Mick and mighty Gold Coast Shufflers. With the Shufflers in 10th place (in a 12 team comp), the Warriors would have fancied their chances of getting the win and equalling their best ever winning streak. (Webster keeps all that data on file, huge fantasy football obsession!)
* As I said though, NRLCEO has a way of restoring balance which I think is why the Cronulla Sharks finally cracked if for a win so that Mick could benefit from the spoils of Todd Carney and Michael Gordon who have been very quiet in recent weeks.
* In an even greater twist to the story, avid readers of mine will cast their mind back to my Draft Day column at the start of the year where I mentioned that for the second year in row Mick couldn’t actually be at the draft and so Webster drafted on his behalf. Last year the Shufflers finished ahead of the Warriors and although it’s been a lean year for the Shufflers this season, 2 of Mick’s 5 wins have come over the Warriors; 51-32 in round 5 and 40-24 in round 16.
Geoff Adams
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